The unknowable World Cup
Four questions to figure out what the hell is going on.
It has rained in Philadelphia this holiday weekend for four straight days, and I’ve scrolled Instagram for just as long. This mean I’ve consumed a lot of soccer content, and chatter in my group chats is picking up about the World Cup, too. With the tournament less than three weeks away, my overall impression is this: I have no idea how it will go. No one does.
Below are four investigatory questions.
Will the stadiums be filled?
Tickets to the 2026 World Cup are infamously expensive. Even Donald Trump, for whom FIFA invented its Peace Prize, said he wouldn’t pay the $1,120 to get into the U.S. men’s national team’s June 12 matchup against Paraguay. FIFA president Gianni Infantino defended FIFA’s dynamic ticketing scheme by claiming it’s simply what the U.S. market can bear. When that’s not convincing, he shames. “In the U.S., you can’t attend a college game, let alone a top-tier professional event, for under $300,” Infantino said. “And this is the World Cup!”
But is the World a hot ticket? Last month, FIFA issued a previously unannounced “front ticket” category and downgraded a tranche of already purchased tickets. This month, FIFA told The Athletic that “it has sold 100 per cent of the inventory it has so far put on the market, which… is approximately 90 per cent of the global total.”
The Athletic reported this week that ticket brokers estimate FIFA hasn’t sold up to 20% of its inventory, or 1.2 million tickets. FIFA denies this. Ticket brokers also said FIFA’s per-transaction cap on tickets favored third-party brokers. FIFA also denies this. But FIFA’s denials this week appear to contradict what it said last month to The Athletic:
For most or all World Cup matches, FIFA appears to be holding back tickets, creating an illusion of scarcity. FIFA president Gianni Infantino said last week that his organization has “sold around 5 million” of the roughly 6.7 million expected to be available. “We could have” sold all tickets, Infantino added, but “we want to keep a few for continuous sale until the start of the tournament to give opportunities to latecomers.”
Weighing on ticket demand is the Trump administration’s immigration and international policy. This week, USA Today reported that the Department of Homeland Security is considering halting processing at airports in so-called sanctuary cities. It seems to be the latest tactic in an intra-administration war over who can get their boss’s favorable attention, for in the week prior the State Department waived visa bonds for World Cup visitors. (Infantino hailed the State Department’s move, a return to the status quo, as if world hunger had been abolished.)
I don’t care about FIFA’s finances. No one should, except prosecutors. But the cost of World Cup tickets and the lack of transparency around their issuance dampens the vibes and increases the likelihood of half-filled stadiums. Not only would that be embarrassing for the U.S. on the world stage, but it would also be an aesthetic distraction for TV viewers and could dampen the energy in what should be the most exciting soccer in the world.
FIFA should have learned its lesson. It used dynamic pricing for last summer’s Club World Cup, also played in the U.S., and they had to dump tickets at the last minute for as low as $13. Only 22,000 fans attended a Chelsea-LAFC match with a capacity of 70,000.
The World Cup is almost certainly not sold out. In a PR coup for New York mayor Zohran Mamdani, FIFA announced this week that it is making available to New Yorkers low-cost tickets. FIFA would not have done this had it not realized the limits of kissing MAGA’s ass and if tickets were selling like hot cakes. This doesn’t necessarily mean people won’t be at the games because… [waves at the complex and loosely regulated web that entangles originator/wholesalers, resellers, and customers in a game of supply-and-demand chicken on digital platforms].
Are bookings for lodging on pace?
No.
But also yes?
World Cup organizers promised the tournament would be an economic boon, but as I wrote last week the economic impacts of sporting events almost always miss projections. Recent news that hotel bookings for the World Cup are short of forecasts all but confirm that the World Cup will be an economic dud (even if short-term vacation rentals are seeing a bump). What’s more interesting is who this World Cup ends up being for.
FIFA marketed it as a global event landing in the world’s great entertainment market, and Infantino assumed the American stereotype: “We are here to celebrate the FIFA 2026 World Cup draw, which will be the greatest FIFA World Cup ever. It’s much more than a sporting event. It’s simply the greatest event that humanity, that mankind, has ever seen and will ever see.” (This is a real quote.)
FIFA’s now scrambling because Infantino’s charm offensive failed to soften the U.S.’s immigration policy or rhetoric and because Trump holds no purchase with local Democrats in the cities hosting the games. FIFA is going to have to dump tickets and American locals, trained since birth on how to navigate secondary markets, are lying in wait.
Should FIFA have always focused on the U.S. domestic market? Would that have made for a better World Cup? Or at least a more coherent and less icky World Cup experience? These are yet more questions that no one can answer decisively.
Can fans tailgate?
At least in Philadelphia: Yes, according to The Athletic. “Welcome to Philadelphia, where walking and tailgating are encouraged,” the outlet cheekily wrote in its World Cup city guide.
But according to internet sleuths: No. And according to me: Not very comfortably.
I’ve walked from Center City Philadelphia to the sports complex. Traversing where I-76 bisects South Philly, then Broad Street’s approximately 25 lanes, then all the parking lots is as soothing and inviting as a dentist’s chair.
In any case, the confusion around tailgating in Philly reflects the confusion around the fan experience for the entirety of the tournament. Are fan zones in host cities free or do they have paid entry? Better check! Is public transit available and not $98? Not in New Jersey! Of course, the ticket situation inherently devalues dedicated fans, and it’s those dedicated fans that establish the vibes. They could not be lower. But also it’s the World Cup and it’s exciting as hell? I’m so confused.
Will the 2026 World Cup be less of a mess than the 1994 World Cup?
Thanks to the Sideline Archive YouTube channel, here’s a list of happenings leading up to or during the U.S.-hosted 1994 World Cup:
A poll found 71% of Americans didn’t know their country was hosting the tournament.
At the World Cup draw in Las Vegas, actor Robin Williams repeatedly referred to then-FIFA president Sepp Blatter as “Sepp Bladder” and made several bathroom jokes at his expense.
Oprah fell through a stage.
A heat wave imperiled player safety, but FIFA imposed a ban on drinking water.
Coverage of O.J. Simpson’s white Ford Bronco interrupted game broadcasts in several markets.
Maradona failed a drug test in what would be his last World Cup.
The tournament started with a missed penalty kick by Diana Ross (yes, the singer) and it ended with a missed penalty kicked by Italy’s legendary Roberto Baggio.
The 1994 World Cup was played in American football stadiums in sweltering heat amid uncertain geopolitics. The Germany team was playing its first World Cup as a unified nation. Russia was playing its first after the breakup of the USSR. Tournament favorites Colombia was suffering through drug cartel turf wars, narco-terrorism, and armed conflict among political factions.
But the ‘94 World Cup was and remains the best attended in the history of the tournament, and it produced a dramatic final between two heavyweights in Italy and Brazil. We may not know what the hell is going on with the 2026 World Cup, but, for better or worse, that won't stop us from putting on a show.